6 predictions for the 2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix

It’s the hype of the new cars, the shiny new liveries, the element of unknown that this year might throw up an interesting curveball. Then we get to qualifying for the opening race of the year and all of that intrigue gets clobbered by the rushing wrecking ball of realisation that Max Verstappen and Red Bull are going to run away with it… again.

Well, it was fun while it lasted, but it’s not going to stop us from getting creative with our predictions for the rest of the 2024 F1 season. There’s still plenty to look forward to, right? The battle for second was always my favourite bit of the race weekend anyway, and who didn’t leap out of their seats as Lance Stroll crossed the line in tenth to claim that final point?

There are 23 races still to go, and McLaren showed us last year how much progress a team can make over the course of the season, so at least for now there is a chance that this season won’t all go Verstappen’s way. Here’s what we think will happen at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

1. Mercedes will be best of the rest

With Lewis Hamilton and George Russell at the wheel, the outlook from Mercedes appeared to be as bright as it has been for years. Both drivers were happy with how their cars were performing, and although the speed wasn’t particularly impressive, it was suggested that might be more down to the circuit than the car.

We’re certainly willing to bet that the Mercedes W15 with its new, more standard philosophy is better suited to higher-speed tracks, of which the Jeddah Corniche Circuit is definitely one. The team itself will be hoping that’s the case, because if the car ends up 45 seconds behind the leading Red Bull in both Bahrain and Jeddah, two very different styles of race track, then the outlook for the rest of the season may be bleak.

Russell looked impressive throughout the weekend in Bahrain. He outqualified Hamilton handily before finishing 15 seconds ahead of his team-mate. He also beat Hamilton in Jeddah last season, so we’re putting Russell on the podium on Saturday.

2. Alpine will be last again

Last weekend was a new low for the Alpine team. When you consider that Otmar Szafnauer, upon arriving as Team Principal in February 2022, had put in place a 100-race plan to get the team back to the top of F1. The Enstone outfit has instead dropped from the upper midfield to the very bottom of the pack, this is a pretty alarming fall.

The A524 is horribly overweight, hence the largely colour-free livery, but worse than that appears to be inherently slow in its current form. Poor aerodynamic performance appears to be its biggest problem, and one that won’t be easily fixed.

Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly, both race winners and proven talents, were languishing at the very back of the field throughout the weekend in Bahrain, and that looks unlikely to change in Saudi Arabia.

3. Sergio Perez will finish second again

While it was slightly disheartening to see Max Verstappen win in Bahrain at quite such a canter, we were at least pleased to see Sergio Perez have a solid weekend. It looked increasingly likely towards the end of last season that the Mexican might not even be in the car this year, but for now he remains, and put together a decent drive.

After qualifying down in fifth, it looked to be more of the same for Perez, who has been horribly outpaced for much of his time in the dreaded second Red Bull seat. But he turned on the speed for the race and fought his way quickly up to second, albeit 22 seconds behind Verstappen.

Ultimately, that’s all Red Bull will ever ask of him, and last weekend’s performance, aside from his five wins for the team, was probably one of his best since he joined in 2021. We expect him to keep that up on Saturday.

4. Nico Hulkenberg will score points

Before the season started, you’d be forgiven for expecting Haas to be welded to the back of the grid. You’d be called a liar if you told me you expected Nico Hulkenberg to qualify in the top ten at the first race of the year.

But that’s what happened, and if it weren’t for contact with Lance Stroll at turn one which saw him dragged out of contention, he could well have converted that strong qualifying performance into points come the end of the race.

As we’ve already covered, the Jeddah Circuit is very different to Bahrain, so the pecking order is likely to change somewhat, but we’re backing the Hulk to double down on his performance with a solid points finish in Saudi Arabia. Let’s go all in and say he’ll come home in tenth place. A point’s a point.

5. Max Verstappen will win the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix

Shock. In all seriousness, you have to respect the talent of this man. What he has achieved over the past three seasons is worthy of its place in the history of F1. Like or loathe him, or the team he drives for, much like other dominant figures of years gone past, they’ve all had a team-mate with the same (OK not always) opportunity.

His speed and consistency are terrifying at times, you may have seen the graphic showcasing his sector times during one particular stint of the Bahrain Grand Prix – his first sector was within a tenth of a second for laps on end.

Of course we’d rather see more competition at the very front of the grid, but it’s worth remembering we were utterly spoiled by the Verstappen/Hamilton duel of 2021, you can count comparable seasons on one hand. Barring a miracle, the reigning champion will win again in Saudi Arabia.

6. The race will be more exciting than Bahrain

This is more prayer than prediction, because surely the show must improve over the non-event of Bahrain? Let’s at least hope the midfield action is energised, perhaps even a straight fight between Ferrari, Mercedes and whoever else fancies a piece of the podium.

The Jeddah Circuit has delivered some barnstormers in its short tenure to date, so we reckon we’re in for another action-packed weekend.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.