Will MotoGP in 2021 be as close as 2020?

And why not? Thanks to frozen machine development, the technicalities are as before. Good news for some. But for whom? It’s never that simple. Consider the facts.

In spite of fewer races, 2020 equalled a record nine different winners, with whisker-close margins and a championship undecided until the penultimate race. Four different marques took wins: Yamaha seven, KTM three, then Suzuki and Ducati two each.

The notable absentee. It was the first season without a single Honda win since motorcycling’s biggest cheese rejoined in 1982. Prior to that, they’d contested 500s only for two years – 1966 and 1967 – winning five race in each of those years.

So does this mean that Yamaha, 2020’s biggest hitters, are going to walk away with it in 2021; and that the newest winners KTM will again beat the other established runners? Don’t bet on it. It didn’t even work like that last year. While Yamaha’s rider- and chequer-friendly R1 looked best on paper, in fact it was very erratic, favouring different riders in different circumstances. Franco Morbidelli and Fabio Quartararo won three races apiece, but finished second and eighth overall, with ultimate champion Joan Mir (Suzuki) prevailing with just one win, but better consistency.

Nor, more than obviously, will Honda take the setback lying down. The no-win disaster was more down to rider than machine problems. The season-long absence of Marc Marquez, their most successful rider (56 wins to Mick Doohan’s 54) was compounded by injury to seasoned former triple-winner Cal Crutchlow, and inexperience for junior riders Taka Nakagami and Alex Marquez. On a bike known to require a highly committed (read “aggressive”) riding style, the younger Marquez was a nonetheless a double podium finisher by the latter part of his rookie season, and the Japanese rider a regular top-three threat.

Given the development freeze, what can Honda do to regain pre-eminence – other than to hope for delays, to give big gun Marc’s right humerus more time to regain strength following his last major surgery in December?

Well, there’s his new team-mate Pol Espargaro. The 29-year-old has yet to win a premier-class race but is a former Moto2 champion, and for the past four years played a leading role in bringing Austrian new boys KTM from beginners to winners. And has a notably aggressive style into the bargain.

And while engine development is frozen, along with the control tyres and electronics, they are at liberty to fiddle with not just the aerodynamics (though only once) but also the chassis and suspension. The 2021 version of the RC213 V4 ran a few shakedown laps with test-rider Stefan Bradl at a rain-hit Jerez in January, and keen-eyed observers noted a beefier rear carbon swing-arm, and likewise a sturdier rear chassis section. Since these sorts of changes are only to be expected, and that the real secrets concern elements like internal bracing and chassis-member wall thickness, Honda weren’t giving much away in allowing detailed photographs to be taken.

What of their rivals? Yamaha’s (indeed MotoGP’s) winningest rider Valentino Rossi has grown more vocal over recent years, urging a redesign to the venerable inline-four machine to join the almost universal 90-degree V4 convention. Of course this can’t happen for 2021 anyway, while Vale has been shuffled off in his 42^nd year from the factory to the satellite team.

But in the “not as simple as that” category comes the truth that last year’s title-winning bike, the Suzuki, was a Yamaha-like inline-four. One advantage, however, was that with only two riders against Yamaha’s four, they simply didn’t steal that many points off one another.

Compounded by the sweet-natured Yamaha’s lack of top speed and hit-or-miss relationship with high-speed circuits, this internal rivalry could again be costly for factory teamsters Quartararo and Vinales, and Rossi’s triple-winning satellite team-mate Franco Morbidelli, who in spite of finishing title runner-up is condemned by the status of his superstar team-mates to a two-year-old bike. Team orders, anyone?

KTM came good last year, in a triumphant combination of well-focused development and generous Red Bull financing. Miguel Oliveira and class rookie Brad Binder each took first-time wins, with two to the former; and the Portuguese and South African line up in the factory team for 2021; with ex-Ducati double-race-winner Danilo Petrucci in the satellite squad.

Ducati meanwhile have lost the services of their long-time team leader Dovizioso, but could be well-served anyway by youthful Australian replacement Jack Miller and the even-more youthful Pecco Bagnaia.

Aprilia wait in the wings, hoping for the best; likewise riders for lesser satellite Honda and Ducati teams. And the fans wait for permission to travel, and to be admitted to the circuits.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.