Six talking points ahead of the 2024 Australian GP

1. The power play at Red Bull

On track, all has been serene for Max Verstappen, who has stroked to an easy pair of victories to pick up from where he left off in 2023. And yet off track Red Bull has been thrown into a degree of turmoil which appears very much unresolved. To put it lightly.

Christian Horner might want to put the episode surrounding his behaviour towards a member of staff behind him and focus on the job at hand, but this one just won’t go away. An internal – and highly confidential – investigation cleared him of wrongdoing, and then the complainant was suspended from her role in the team. Now it is said she has lodged a complaint with the FIA, raising a question over whether the governing body will come to the same benign conclusions over Horner’s innocence.

But there’s so much more below the surface of this murky case, which amounts to a power struggle over the future of F1’s dominant team. Horner appears aligned with the Thai faction that owns a 51 per cent share in the team, with Verstappen Sr and Jr fully behind Helmut Marko and the Austrian camp. Under Dietrich Mateschitz, Red Bull had years of stability, but since the co-founder’s death from cancer in October 2022 a void has opened up over who will ultimately control the team’s destiny. 

It seems bizarre when it is performing at such heights of excellence, but Red Bull as we know it now appears fractured perhaps beyond repair. Will Horner be forced out? Or will Verstappen walk away from the best car in search of a fresh start? That should seem inconceivable, and yet somehow isn’t. And what is racing through the mind of Adrian Newey, the man ultimately responsible for the team’s eminence? The intention in Melbourne will be for Red Bull to plough on through another race weekend where it hammers the opposition into submission, as usual. But the intrigue surrounding the power play within will bubble away. Let’s see if and how it breaks to the surface this time.

2. Sainz to return, Bearman back in F2

For the star of the Saudi Arabian GP, the focus this weekend will be to embrace a return to grounded reality. Oliver Bearman’s excellent seventh place on his surprise F1 debut for Ferrari was a happy distraction from the general sense of angst in which the new season has begun.

But Carlos Sainz Jr should be fully recovered from his bout of appendicitis and will resume his place beside Charles Leclerc, with Bearman facing the task of making up for lost time in F2. He failed to score in the opening round in Bahrain and then of course didn’t feature at all in Jeddah after claiming pole position. So his campaign requires all his attention to achieve lift-off – an interesting little test of character for the teenager. It will be almost as if his F1 debut never occurred.

Meanwhile, Sainz will be aiming to pick up from where he left off in Bahrain – as the lead Ferrari driver. The Spaniard’s future remains opaque (at least in public) following Ferrari’s decision to replace him with Lewis Hamilton in 2025, so motivation to prove his worth and swallow that rejection with pride will be a running them this season. Ferrari has been best of the rest so far and Leclerc made the podium from pole position in Jeddah, so the internal team dynamics will be worth keeping an eye on.

3. Hamilton out of sorts

The same is true at Mercedes. Beyond the obvious awkwardness of still driving for a team he is choosing to leave for another, Hamilton has struggled so far to make much more of the new W15 than he did its predecessor. As George Russell toiled to an underwhelming sixth in Jeddah, Hamilton tried a reverse strategy that only left him at the back of an all-British F1 train, behind Bearman and Lando Norris in ninth.

The signs are that despite the reset of admitting its mistakes and adopting a new design concept, Mercedes is still struggling to hit the marks of this ground-effects ruleset in its third year of currency. Hamilton appears mired in a state of mediocrity. We’ve seen countless times before the seven-time champion should never be underestimated. But if there aren't clear signs of progress soon, what effects might that create within Mercedes, especially if Russell maintains the upper hand?

4. Questions hover over Stroll

He’s in what appears to be the most secure seat on the grid. But that doesn’t necessarily mean Lance Stroll is immune to the pressure that might build if he doesn’t immediately shake off the error that led him to crash out in Jeddah in lame fashion.

On the face of it, his place at Aston Martin is secure for as long as Lawrence Stroll retains his controlling interest in the marque. But even so, you have to wonder if there might become a time when awkward questions over Lance’s commitment and ultimate potential will force a few home truths.

Stroll needs a positive bounce-back from the humiliation of Jeddah this weekend to quieten the doubts, perhaps in his own mind as much as those of his critics. There’s no shame in being overshadowed by 42-year-old Fernando Alonso, but Stroll should be closer to the great Spaniard’s level by now. No one at the team can ever speak out against him, for all too obvious reasons. But without a clear sign of progress in his campaign, just how long will his ‘safe seat’ remain so?

5. Ricciardo must use home advantage

Such protection certainly doesn’t exist for Daniel Ricciardo, whose big smile won’t save him if he doesn’t raise his game soon. The Australian has made a strangely anonymous start to the season in the second Red Bull team, and Helmut Marko has already been moved to give him a public warning.

Liam Lawson, who impressed as a substitute last season when Ricciardo was injured, is ready and waiting in the wings. Ricciardo needs to fly at Albert Park. Outqualifying and outracing team-mate Yuki Tsunoda should be the minimum requirement if Ricciardo isn’t to face an ignominious end to his F1 career. He knows time won’t be on his side.

6. Uncomfortable scrutiny for Alpine too

Then there’s the alarming fall of Alpine, or Team Enstone as it’s also known. A flat 2023 campaign led to a mid-season change at the top with ex-Peugeot sports car boss Bruno Famin taking the reins from Otmar Szafnauer, but things have only got worse for a team that has full manufacturer backing and status.

The Renault board isn’t known for its patience. Technical director Matt Harman talked a good fight at the season launch – then was gone just days later, along with head of aero Dirk de Beer, in the wake of long-time senior heads Alan Permane and Pat Fry having departed last year. This is a team in what appears to be a woeful spiral.

Drivers Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly are gritting their teeth and both are straining to keep up a positive appearance, but they are fighting for their own F1 futures beyond the end of this season when they are out of contract. It’s a potentially combustible situation lacking an obvious happy outcome.

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