2023 Canadian Grand Prix Preview | Can Verstappen match Senna?

Unfortunately for him, a Ferrari win in Canada is almost an impossibility judging by his team’s performance in this F1 season so far. Indeed, the form book states clearly that Red Bull are the overwhelming favourites going into round nine of the championship. Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez have taken a clean sweep of the spoils thus far, with Red Bull leading the rest of the field by winning margins in excess of 20 seconds at each and every race.

It feels already as though the big question for the remainder of the season is just how many Red Bull can win. Can they do the unthinkable and complete a 100 per cent record? The likes of Mercedes, Aston Martin and Ferrari are running out time to stop it happening. Can they stop the run Canada? Here are five things to look out for this weekend.

1. Can Max Verstappen match Ayrton Senna’s win record?

Already, at the age of just 25, Max Verstappen is one win away from matching one of the all-time greats. Ayrton Senna took his 41^st victory at the 1993 Australian Grand Prix, and a win this weekend in Canada would see Verstappen draw level with the legendary Brazilian. Senna accrued his tally from 161 starts, it’s taken Verstappen 170, but the Dutchman has scored his last 30 victories within the past three seasons – ten in 2021, 15 in 2022, and five so far in 2023. That is an extraordinary run.

There is no doubt that Verstappen is going to go on and overhaul Senna’s record. The question now becomes how far can he go? Alain Prost (51 wins), Sebastian Vettel (53), Michael Schumacher (91) and Lewis Hamilton (103 and counting) are the top four most successful F1 drivers of all time. Where will Max rank when all is said and done?

It’s happened quite quickly, but Verstappen has now positioned himself at the very top of the F1 ladder. He’s the benchmark week in, week out, and it’s up to the rest to try and stop him.

2. Sergio Perez has no more chances, but the pressure’s off?

A second poor weekend in a row at the Spanish Grand Prix has all but silenced any hopes Perez had of challenging his team-mate for the title this year. He could have come away from Saudi Arabia as the championship leader, and he categorically out-performed Verstappen in Azerbaijan. But poor performances in Melbourne, Monaco and Spain have seen his deficit grow from a single point to 53.

In many ways this is the ideal scenario for Red Bull. Should they need to step in at any stage Verstappen is the clear leader in the championship, so the issue of team orders won’t be a problem. However, I suspect Christian Horner would rather Perez was following his team-mate home in second place rather than languishing down in 4t^h or 5^th.

For that reason, Perez needs to regroup and get himself back into the grove, because we’ve seen before that his chances will run out quickly if Red Bull decide he’s no longer the driver to accompany Verstappen. His title hopes have faded considerably, so the pressure is off in many ways. He’s driving a car that is the class of the field, all he needs to do is drive the way we know he can and he'll quickly get his season back on track.

3. Aston Martin talk up their chances with fresh upgrades

It was a poor weekend for Aston Martin last time out. Their early form that had seen them stand clear as the closest challengers to Red Bull seemed to completely desert them in Catalunya, and Fernando Alonso was quick to point out how fast the Mercedes had been.

Speed is one thing, but while Aston had held a considerable advantage at the start of the year, the consistency of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell means Mercedes actually hold the advantage in the constructors’ standings.

This weekend in Canada, however, Alonso and his team-mate Lance Stroll will get to sample their own set of upgrades that the team is confident will bring them back into contention at the sharp end. Will it be enough to challenge the Red Bulls? Unlikely, but Alonso will be looking to return to the podium and continue his terrific season as quickly as possible.

4. Can Lance Stroll score a home win?

As we’ve already concluded, a win for anyone other than Verstappen or Perez is incredibly difficult to foresee, so it would take a remarkable race to see Lance Stroll come away as the victor. Should Aston Martin bounce back in the way they’re hoping however, there is a very real chance that a Canadian driver could finally return to the podium at his home race.

Jacques Villeneuve was the last to do it, when he finished in second at his first attempt in 1996, only to suffer horrendous luck in later years as he retired on six out of nine occasions. Since then, the Canadian fans have had very little to cheer.

This weekend represents the best chance for a home driver to stand on the podium since Villeneuve stuck it in the Wall of Champions on the second lap in 1997. Stroll has struggled to match the pace of his illustrious team-mate since returning from his cycling accident at the start of the year, but he managed to outscore Alonso for the first time in Spain, so he’s proved he can do it if the car is quick enough.

5. Can Ferrari finally get their act together?

Fourth in the constructors’ standings is a poor return for a team that had arguably the quickest car for large parts of last season. Ferrari need a change in fortunes, and fast, but more importantly than that, they need to figure out why the car is underperforming.

Charles Leclerc had an awful time in qualifying last time out, suffering with issues that his team never did get to the bottom of, and slumped to a disastrous 11^th-place finish on Sunday. He’s had a stop-start opening to the season, with retirements and issues dotted with occasional flashes of the pace we know he has. You just get the sense that if Ferrari can get a handle on this car, Leclerc will be ready to make the most of it.

Carlos Sainz Jr. on the other hand has been largely absent, filling the void between the top three teams and the rest, and is so far yet to trouble the podium places. Has he got anything in his locker to spark his season into life this weekend? Ferrari has proven it can put together a successful motorsport programme with its victory at Le Mans, now the F1 team needs to step up and prove its worth.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.