The Red Bull carousel: Who will partner Verstappen in 2026?

It caused an even bigger stir early this campaign. The error of the ways of renowned advisor Helmut Marko, and then team principal Christian Horner, manifested itself after two Grands Prix. Lawson was shockingly and unceremoniously demoted back to the newly-renamed Racing Bulls, and Tsunoda was handed his seemingly long-overdue promotion.

Seven months on, and just five months away from one of the biggest regulation changes in F1 history, the uncertainty as to who will drive for which team swirls around Red Bull (at least on one side of the garage) and Racing Bulls.

For all the speculation over the summer surrounding Max Verstappen, and the remarks of Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff and a potential shock move for the four-time World Champion, he is staying put for 2026, albeit due to a clause in his contract failing to be triggered.

In that instance, Verstappen needed to be outside the top three in the drivers' standings heading into the August break. He lay third at the time, behind McLaren duo Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.

Regardless, conversations still took place. Verstappen is aware of Wolff's undoubted interest and a move may be on the cards for 2027 if Mercedes, as it did in 2014, proves itself the team to beat if its power unit is head and shoulders above its rivals.

Another contract clause could be activated, understood to be Verstappen outside of the top two in the drivers' standings going into next summer's break. That, however, is for another time.

As to Verstappen's team-mate for next season, that is almost certain be Isack Hadjar, the French-Algerian who has mightily impressed in his rookie year, particularly after such a harrowing start when he crashed out on the formation lap of the curtain-raising Australian Grand Prix.

The sight of a head-bowed Hadjar walking disconsolately down the paddock at Albert Park, with an arm from Anthony Hamilton, father of seven-time champion Lewis, wrapped around the then 20-year-old will long remain one of the endearing images of the season.

Hadjar picked himself up, dusted himself down, and has proven himself worthy of a place in Formula 1. He will soon be occupying the seemingly poisoned chalice of the second Red Bull seat alongside Verstappen.

Many have tried to prove themselves as Verstappen's equal, only for Ricciardo, Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon, Sergio Pérez (certainly the Mexican's fourth and final season after the previous three as wingman), Lawson and currently Tsunoda, have all failed.

The only saving grace for Hadjar will be the predominantly clean slate of the RB22, given the rules upheaval, with a very different driving experience on the cards for all concerned in light of the 50/50 split between combustion and electrical energy.

With Hadjar moving up, it leaves two seats to be filled at Racing Bulls. One of those is set to be filled by Arvid Lindblad, arguably a season too soon in the eyes of many observers, as he has fallen short of his potential in F2 this year.

The 18-year-old British-Swede won Macau Formula 4 in 2023, and was Formula Regional Oceania champion earlier this year, but was only fourth in F3 last term after a disappointing slump in the final three rounds. He lies an off-the-pace seventh in F2 this season.

Marko in particular, as was the case with Lawson’s promotion, is convinced by Lindblad's potential. It remains to be seen. If he is given the nod, it means Lawson and Tsunoda are vying for the one remaining spot on the grid for 2026. This is Red Bull, doing things its way.

Tsunoda, like his predecessors, has struggled to extract feel and performance from a car overwhelmingly styled for Verstappen. Upgrades and set-up changes have had little effect, leaving the Japanese often cutting a demoralised figure, never more so than a seven-race mid-season run when he failed to score a point.

Always one step behind Verstappen in the updates department, there was a light at the end of the tunnel when he was handed a new floor on his car for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, a component which had propelled his team-mate to a dominant win from pole at the previous race in Monza.

Verstappen repeated the trick in Baku, where Tsunoda was a welcome sixth, his best result since finishing fourth in the final race of his rookie year in 2021 in Abu Dhabi.

At the last race in Singapore, however, it was back to type for Tsunoda. He struggled again, qualifying 13^th and finishing 12^th, in stark contrast to Verstappen who started and finished second to keep his title hopes alive.

As for Lawson, after the demoralisation of his demotion, it took a while for him to become attuned again to life at Racing Bulls, and a significantly different car, not only compared to the RB21, but to the VCARB of last season.

It was not until the eighth race of this year that Lawson finally scored points, finishing eighth in Monaco, on the back of which he began to build momentum, placing sixth in Austria, and eighth again in Belgium and Hungary, before a career-high fifth in Baku.

Two weeks later in Singapore, however, the wheels came off — almost literally as Lawson crashed in the second and third practice sessions. With Marko and new team principal Laurent Mekies edging closer to a decision, the timing of those incidents could not have been worse. For Lawson and Tsunoda, it is a waiting game.

Referring to a decision on his future, and highlighting the Red Bull process that is played out, Lawson said: “I’d love to know tomorrow, honestly. But obviously, in this camp, it's very normal to be left on hold a little bit.

“That’s how it is at the moment. I know the only thing that has control over that is my performance in the car. So until I have that answer, I think that’s just what I’m focused on.

As for Tsunoda, speaking recently, he said: “Every race is crucial at this moment. I just keep delivering the results, showing some brightness every race, and let them decide what they want to do.

“The only thing I’m thinking about is staying with Red Bull next year. I’m not really thinking much about going back to Racing Bulls or whatever. If that happens, I’ll think about that when it happens."

Mekies has previously stated the team will not be rushed into a decision, whilst Marko threw a fly into the ointment by confirming Lindblad's F2 rival, Alex Dunne, surprisingly recently released by McLaren after two years as part of their driver development programme, would be spoken to.

"Alex Dunne is a very fast, aggressive, young driver," said Marko. "That makes him a good fit for Red Bull. And because he's absolutely free now, revoked by mutual agreement with McLaren, that's someone we will talk to for sure."

For all the drivers concerned, the uncertainty has to be a distraction at times. But given Red Bull's luxuriously unique position of having two teams, these are the games it can play. As mentioned at the start, it has always done things its own way.

Images courtesy of Getty Images.