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Picking a Winner
We pick out the key pieces to consider when you want to pick a winner at Goodwood
So, what does it take to pick a winning horse?
A day at the races wouldn't be complete without having a bet on the horses, but picking a winner is never easy - unless you happen to be very lucky. We've compiled a brief guide to help you, hopefully, have a profitable day and leave the course with that winning feeling.
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Parade Ring
For starters, check the horses in the Parade Ring. Horses are like humans and their demeanour can often give away clues as to how they might perform. Though it's far from an exact science, a horse who has a bright coat, an alert look, is not overly sweated up and is walking calmly is more likely to be successful than a horse who shows the opposite.
Click on the play button to the left to watch our 'How to pick a winner' video. Here our 2016 Racecourse Ambassador, and Champion Apprentice Jockey, Tom Marquand, takes you through what you should be looking for when picking out a winner in the Parade Ring.
Size
Don't let the size of the horse affect your opinion; much like us, equine athletes come in all shapes and sizes. Do look out for horses who look fit though, if they're showing muscles and are not carrying a large belly that should help!
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Form
Probably the single most important factor in picking a winner is form; that's the results of previous races and how well a horse has run in the past when facing the same conditions as the race it's in.
Your racecard will show a number of letters:
- C indicates a horse has won on that course before
- D indicates a horse has won over that distance before
- CD indicates a horse has won over course and distance
- BF stands for beaten favourite and indicates a horse was favourite for a race but did not win
Ground
The ground plays a major role in whether a horse is likely to put its best foot forward. The racecard will say what ground the horse has won/placed on before, so check this against the going on the day. Find out if the horse has been running in higher or lower grades before too, as finishing third in a Group 1 race is better form than winning a Class 5. Also, look at trainer form as it is often a case that if a yard is having a lot of winners then their entire team will be in form.
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Betting
A key guide to picking a winner is the betting market. If a horse is the subject of a big gamble this is usually (though not always) for a reason, such as the owners particularly expecting the horse to win that day. If a horse's price is getting bigger rapidly, that's often a sign to leave it alone. Large odds can be attractive and indeed, horses do win at big prices, but if a horse is a silly price like 100-1 that probably means it's an unlikely winner!
If you have already made your selection and you go to place your bet, only to find it is a shorter price than you'd hoped, don't change your mind - there's nothing worse than missing a winner because you felt it was too short in the betting.
Of course, you can study the form until you're blue in the face, or choose a horse because it looks incredible in the Parade Ring or is being gambled on heavily, but no-one knows what is going through that horse's mind and there's always the possibility of bad luck in running. But it's that unpredictability that makes racing so exciting (and frustrating). Enjoy your day at the races and have a bet, but the best piece of advice is to only gamble what you can afford to lose.
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